S&P has assigned Moldova BB-/B long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings with a stable outlook
S&P Global Ratings, one of the three major global rating agencies, along with Moody's and Fitch, has assigned Moldova its first long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings, both in foreign and local currency, at BB-/B. The stable outlook reflects the agency's expectation that Moldova's growth will gradually strengthen over the next 1-2 years and that its net public debt will remain moderate in a global context. The outlook also reflects S&P's view that the government will remain committed to the reforms necessary to facilitate Moldova's accession to the EU, while regional geopolitical risks, including those related to the Transnistria region, will not increase. According to the agency's estimates, after a period of stagnation in 2022-2024, economic growth will return to 1.2% in 2025, 2.2% in 2026, and up to 3% starting in 2027, driven by higher agricultural performance, renewed investment, and reforms implemented under the EU Growth Plan (€1.9 billion). S&P estimates that despite stronger economic growth and reforms, Moldova's per capita income will remain low in a global context, with the economy dominated by low value-added sectors and characterized by balance of payments vulnerabilities, including dependence on remittances from foreign workers. Moldova's economy is dominated by basic sectors, including agriculture and light industry, while income levels are modest in a global context: according to S&P forecasts, GDP per capita will reach $8,500 by 2025. In 2024, the largest contributors to Moldova's GDP were wholesale and retail trade (15%), real estate (8%), manufacturing, including textiles and auto parts (7.7%), and agriculture (7%), including grain, fruit, vegetables, and wine production. Public debt remains moderate, at around 35% of GDP at the end of 2025, and consists mainly of long-term concessional loans from official creditors, which helps to keep financing needs under control. The agency also expects policy continuity with a focus on reforms to advance the path to EU accession, as the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) retained its parliamentary majority in the September parliamentary elections. S&P expects the Moldovan authorities to continue to focus their efforts on fighting corruption, implementing reforms, and advancing Moldova's path to EU membership. It also notes that Moldova's long-term economic potential will be constrained by continued population migration. In its analysis, S&P presented negative and positive scenarios for Moldova. Moldova's rating could deteriorate if budget indicators deviate significantly from the baseline forecast or if the Russian-Ukrainian war spills over into Moldova, although S&P experts currently consider this highly unlikely. At the same time, Moldova's rating could improve if the vulnerability of its balance of payments decreases, if per capita income grows, and if the economy diversifies. The rating could also improve if reforms related to Moldova's EU accession negotiations are implemented, the institutional system is strengthened, economic policies are improved, and regional geopolitical risks are mitigated. Currently, Moldova's institutional system is characterized by shortcomings, and public opinion remains divided on the country's preferred direction of development—either toward the EU or toward Russia. S&P's sovereign ratings are a key benchmark for international investors, determining perceptions of the country's economic stability, access to international capital, and the cost of financing. // 13.10.2025 – InfoMarket.
