Moldova's GDP in Q2 2025 grew by 1.6% relative to Q1 2025, and economic growth of 1.3% is expected for the whole of 2025 - the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization
The Ministry reported this while commenting on data presented on September 30 by the National Bureau of Statistics (BNS) on the dynamics of Moldova's GDP, according to which in Q2 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, it grew by 1.1% to 82.31 billion lei, and in the first half of 2025, GDP amounted to 155 billion 293 million lei and remained unchanged versus the same period last year. The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization notes that Moldova's 1.6% GDP growth in Q2 2025, compared to the previous quarter, confirms signs of economic recovery after 1.4% GDP growth in the first quarter of this year against the fourth quarter of last year. BNS data show that, despite the difficulties facing the economy, structural trends are changing: new growth drivers are emerging, mitigating the effects of the downturn in sectors. As noted by the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization, construction has become one of the main drivers of this dynamic, showing growth of more than 7%. The strongest dynamics were registered in residential construction: investment increased by 34% thanks to demand for housing. At the same time, non-residential construction increased by 15%, facilitated by government policies to stimulate the reinvestment of profits by local companies, as well as the implementation of Investment Program 373 and the state support mechanism. The energy sector, in turn, made an impressive contribution: electricity, heat, and gas production and supply grew by 20%, confirming the importance of investment in critical infrastructure. Manufacturing and trade recovered, while the information technology and communications sector continued to grow, accounting for 7.2% of GDP, which strengthened its role in the economy. The Ministry points out that the dynamics of services are a clear sign of structural changes in the economy. In the second quarter of this year, exports of services increased by almost 10%, reaching 16.9% of GDP and contributing 1.6 percentage points to economic growth. In fact, exports of services exceeded the value of exports of goods by more than 26% and reached 55.8% of total exports of goods and services. This trend indicates a profound transformation of Moldova's economy, which is positioning itself in foreign markets through higher value-added services such as IT and communications. In agriculture, the decline exceeded 4% against the backdrop of spring frosts. A decline was also recorded in transport and public administration, which softened the overall dynamics. Investment activity continues to grow: gross fixed capital formation increased by 26% in the second quarter. The data show an increase in investment in all categories: buildings and special structures (+24%), machinery and equipment (+26%), and other types of investment (+86%). Household consumption, which accounted for about 80% of GDP, increased by 2.2%, mainly due to consumption of goods. This fact confirms the growth in household income both from wages (which increased by almost 2% in real terms) and from credit resources: consumer loans grew by approximately 30% in the second quarter. According to the revised forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization, economic growth in 2025 is estimated at 1.3% instead of the previous forecast of 2%. The adjustment is explained by a sharp trade deficit caused by a decline in exports of goods and higher-than-expected growth in imports, especially energy carriers. In the medium term, the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization, together with macroeconomic experts, envisages three scenarios for economic development. The baseline scenario envisages slow economic growth close to current potential, with an annual rate of 1.5% to 2% amid gradual reforms and a stable international environment. The moderate scenario assumes partial implementation of the reforms and investment projects envisaged in the EU Growth Plan, which could lead to a gradual acceleration in growth, with a projected growth rate of 3.6% in 2028. The optimistic scenario assumes full implementation of the EU Growth Plan, which could increase GDP to 4.3% in 2028. However, as noted by the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization, these positive prospects remain vulnerable to risks such as the escalation of the war in Ukraine, global geopolitical tensions, a possible recession in the economies of Moldova's main trading partners, new energy shocks, and adverse weather conditions. The dynamics of these factors will play a key role in shaping the country's economic trajectory in the coming years. // 30.09.2025 — InfoMarket
