The Government approved the Medium-Term Budgetary Forecast (2025-2027)
The Medium-Term Budgetary Forecast (MTBF) is the main document on the basis of which the annual budget of the country is elaborated, as well as a guideline for the public authorities in the elaboration of their budget proposals for 2025. According to the forecasts approved in the MTBF, the national public budget revenues in 2025 will amount to 115.8 billion lei, in 2026 – 124.4 billion lei, and in 2027 – 135.8 billion lei (in 2024, the approved amount is 107.1 billion lei), while the national public budget expenditures in 2025 are projected at 126.2 billion lei, in 2026 – 133.7 billion lei, in 2027 – 144.8 billion lei (in the current year – 120.05 billion lei). According to the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, the share of revenues in relation to GDP in 2025 will increase to 32.3% (in 2024, 31.3% is expected), and in the next 2 years it will amount to 31.7%. The share of expenditures in relation to GDP in 2025 will also increase slightly - by 0.2 percentage points - to 36.1%, and in the next 2 years it will decrease to 35.1% in 2026 and 34.8% in 2027. The budget deficit is expected to decrease from the approved 15.7 billion lei in 2024 (-4.6% of GDP) to 13.4 billion lei in 2027 (-3.1% of GDP). Thus, according to the MTBF, the national public budget revenues in 2027 will increase by 17.2% compared to 2025, and expenditures will grow by 15.2%.The national public budget deficit will decrease from 3.8% of GDP in 2025 to 3.1% in 2027. At the same time, in 2024, real GDP growth will be about 2.5%, and in the next medium term, growth is expected from 3% to 3.7%. During the reporting period, taxes and duties will make up the bulk of the national public budget revenues - about 63% of total revenues, mainly due to receipts from taxes and duties on goods and services. In the medium term, according to preliminary estimates, this group of revenues will grow at an average annual rate of 8.3%. Social and health insurance contributions in total revenues in the forecast period will increase to 31.6% in 2027 compared to 30.9% in 2025 as a result of an increase in the wage fund in the medium term by about 10%. The share of public debt in GDP will decrease from 39% at the end of 2025 to 38.3% at the end of 2027, and the costs of servicing the public debt will increase compared to previous years and reach 1.4% of GDP in 2025-2027. During this period, it is expected that 6.9 billion lei will be used to service the external public debt, and 8.7 billion lei to service the internal public debt. The MTBF was compiled taking into account the macroeconomic forecasts prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization, the planned fiscal policy measures, as well as the expenditure plan by sectors. According to forecasts, the Moldovan economy will grow by 2.5% in 2024, by 3% in 2025, by 3.3% in 2026, and by 3.7% in 2027. The average annual inflation rate will amount to 4.7% in 2024, and between 4.5% and 5% in the following 3 years. The inflation rate will amount to 6.8% by the end of 2024. Over the next 3 years, foreign trade growth will be more moderate than in previous years: exports will grow by 11.1% in 2024, by 8.9% in 2025, by 7.3% in 2026, by 5.7% in 2027, and imports by 9.5% in 2024, and by 6.8%, 5.9% and 5.1%, respectively, in the following three years. The trade balance deficit will annually exceed 5 billion lei and will reach 5.7 billion lei by 2027. Growth in the industrial sector is expected to recover (up 3-4% annually). In the agricultural sector, after registered 23.6% growth in 2023, it is 1.5% expected growth this year, and 1.5-2% growth in the next 3 years. The volume of investments in long-term tangible assets will also increase slightly: by 2.2% in 2024, and in the next 3 years they will grow by 2.7-2.9%. The average annual exchange rate of the Moldovan leu (MDL) in 2024 will be 18.17 per US dollar (USD), and in the next 3 years the MDL will depreciate slightly (18.43 in 2025, 18.68 in 2026, 18.91 in 2027). The MDL exchange rate at the end of 2024 will be 18.35 lei per USD, and by the end of 2027 it may grow to 19.7 lei per USD. The nominal average monthly salary will increase from 13,700 lei in 2024 to 18,300 lei in 2027. Its annual growth in nominal terms will be from 9.6% to 11.9%, but in real terms in 2024 the growth will be 6.9%, and in the following 3 years – 6.2%, 4.6% and 4.4%, respectively. The wage fund will increase from 102.3 billion lei in 2024 to 135.7 billion lei in 2027. // 08.08.2024 - InfoMarket.
