Moldova's economy will grow by 2.5% in 2024 and annual GDP growth will be within 3-3.7% in the next 3 years – the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization.
According to the new macroeconomic forecast published on the ministry's website, Moldova's GDP in 2024 will amount to 328 billion lei, which is 2.5% more than in the previous year. For comparison, the economy shrank by 4.6% in 2022, while last year there was a slight growth of 0.7%. The department's previous forecast was 2%, and even earlier it was 2.5%. In 2024, the average annual growth of inflation will be 4.7%, in the next 3 years - 4.5-5% annually. At the end of 2024, the inflation rate will amount to 6.8%, in 2025 - 3.6%, and in the next 2 years - 5% each. From this year, foreign trade activity is expected to recover - exports will grow by 11.1% and imports by 9.5% against last year's decline of 6.5% and 5.9% respectively. In 2025-2027, the growth rates of exports and imports will slow down to 5-9% per year. Export growth rates will be higher than import growth rates, but overall, Moldova will maintain and continue to have a negative foreign trade balance. The volume of investments in long-term tangible assets in absolute value will grow from 41.2 billion to 51.3 billion lei in 2024-2027, and the dynamics relative to the previous year will fluctuate within 2.2-3.3%. It should be reminded that in the previous 2 years there was a decline in investments: by 1% in 2023 and by 11.9% in 2022. In the agricultural sector, after a decline of almost 30% in 2022 and a growth of 23.6% in 2023, in the following years the growth will be insignificant - 1-2% per year. The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization slightly adjusted the forecast of the average monthly nominal salary in the country: from 2025 to 2027, its size will increase from 15.2 thousand to 18.3 thousand lei - the annual growth in nominal terms will be from 9.6% to almost 11% per year, but taking into account inflation, the growth will be much lower - by 4.4-6.2%. In 2024, the nominal salary will be 13700 lei - 11.9% more than last year in nominal terms and 6.9% more in real terms. The labor remuneration fund in 2024 is expected to exceed 100 billion lei per year: from 102.3 billion lei in 2024 to 135.7 billion lei in 2027. The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization forecasts a less pronounced depreciation of the MDL against the USD than in the previous forecast. Thus, the average annual exchange rate of the MDL against the USD in 2024 will be 18.17 lei per dollar, in 2025 - 18.43 lei per dollar, in 2025 - 18.43 lei per dollar - 18.43 lei, in 2026 - 18.68 lei per dollar, in 2027 - 18.91 lei per dollar. At the end of 2024, the exchange rate of the MDL against the USD will be 18.35 lei per dollar, at the end of 2025 – 18.55 lei, at the end of 2026 – 18.77 lei per dollar and will exceed 18.9 lei - at the end of 2027. // 11.04.2024 - InfoMarket.
