The Monitorul Oficial published the Budgetary forecast for the medium term (2024-2026).
According to the budget forecast, the revenues of the national public budget in 2024 will amount to 100.4 billion lei, in 2025 - 113.2 billion lei, and in 2026 - 122.4 billion lei (in 2023 - 100.6 billion lei). The expenditures of the national public budget in 2024 are projected at the level of 121.9 billion lei, in 2025 - 127.5 billion lei, in 2026 - 136.5 billion lei (in the current year - 119.1 billion lei). The budget deficit is expected to decrease from 18.5 billion lei (-6% of GDP) in 2023 to 16.5 billion lei in 2024 (-4.9%), and in the next 2 years - 14.3 billion lei and, respectively, 14.1 billion lei (-3.8% and -3.4% of GDP). In the medium term, the annual growth of revenues of the national public budget is expected by an average of 6.7%. Taxes and fees will account for about 65% of the national public budget's revenues, mainly from taxes on goods and services. As for the costs, most of them will be directed to social protection. The Budgetary forecast for the medium term is based on the macroeconomic forecasts prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization in March 2023, the planned fiscal policy measures, and the spending plan by sector. As expected, Moldova's GDP in 2023 will grow by 2.5%, in 2024 - by 3.5%, in 2025 - by 4%, in 2026 - by 4.5%. The average annual inflation rate in 2023 will be 13.5%, and in the next 3 years it will return to the established corridor within 5-5.5%. At the end of 2023, the inflation rate will be 6%. In the next 3 years, the growth of foreign trade indicators will be more moderate than in the previous 2 years: exports will grow by 8.2% in 2024, by 7.2% in 2025, by 7.5% in 2026, imports by 4.4%, 5.2% and 4.8%, respectively. The trade balance deficit will exceed 5 billion lei annually. Growth is expected to recover in the industrial sector (by 4.5-5% annually). Agricultural production, against the background of last year's decline of almost 30%, is expected to grow by 15% in 2023, and the annual growth until 2026 will be 2-2.3%. In 2023, the volume of investments in long-term tangible assets will slightly increase (+1.5% against the backdrop of last year's decline by 11.6%), in the next 3 years they will grow by 4.5-5.5%. The average annual exchange rate of the Moldovan leu in 2023 will be 18.99 per dollar, and in the next 3 years the leu will depreciate slightly (19.16 in 2024, 19.4 in 2025, 19.62 in 2026). The leu exchange rate at the end of the year will be 19.18 lei per dollar, and at the end of 2026 it may rise to 19.69 lei per dollar. The nominal average monthly salary will increase from 11,850 lei in 2023 to 15,800 lei in 2026. Its annual growth in nominal terms will be from 9.7% to 13.9%, but in real terms in 2023 the growth will be 0.4%, in the next 3 years - 4.5-4.8%. The payroll fund will increase from 88.7 billion lei in 2023 to 119.2 billion lei in 2026. The document also contains a list of risks and uncertainties that may affect the baseline forecasts for the next three years. Among external risks: exacerbation of geopolitical tensions around the world and deterioration of the economic environment, rising inflation in the world, social tensions in the US and the EU. Domestic risks – continued pro-inflationary pressures that will affect economic activity and domestic demand; unfavorable climatic conditions - will affect the indicators of agricultural production and, as a result, the industrial sector and exports; increasing imbalances at the macroeconomic level, including those caused by labor shortages, which will lead to an increase in the vulnerability of the national economy; possible fluctuations in the exchange rate of the national currency against major foreign currencies. //25.07.2023 – InfoMarket.
