Moldova's GDP will grow by 2.5% in 2023 and the economy will grow by 3.5-4.5% annually thereafter - the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization forecast.
This is a preliminary forecast of macroeconomic indicators for 2023-2026 developed by the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization (MDED). In 2023, Moldova's GDP is expected to be 308.8 billion lei, up about 2.5% from the previous year. In 2024, Moldovan economy’s growth is projected at 3.5%, and in 2025. - 4%, and in 2026 - 4.5%, compared to the previous year. It should be reminded that such growth is projected against the background of a GDP decline of 5.9% in 2022, and a growth of 13.9% in 2021. According to the forecast of the MDED, the average annual inflation rate in 2023 will be 13.5%, and in the next two years - 5.5% and, respectively, 5%. At the end of the year, the inflation rate in 2023-2026 will be 6%, 5.5%, and 5%, respectively. The dynamics of foreign trade transactions is expected to be positive: in 2023, exports will increase by 3.4%, to $4.48 billion, and imports will increase by 6.5%, to $9.8 billion. In 2024, Moldovan exports will grow by 8.2% (imports will increase by 4.4%), in 2025 - by 7.2% (imports by 5.2%), and in 2026 by 7.5% (imports by 4.8%). The foreign trade deficit will grow from $5.33 billion in 2023 to $5.71 billion. The volume of investment in long-term tangible assets, after a significant decline in 2022 (-11.6%), will increase by 1.5% this year, while in the next 3 years - by 4.5%, 4.9% and, respectively, 5.5%. The volume of industrial production in 2023 is projected at 103.2 billion lei, which is 4.5% more than in the previous year. In the next 3 years, the annual growth of the industrial sector will be 4.5-5%. In the agricultural sector, the volume of production will increase by 15% compared to last year, when there was a decrease of almost 30%, and in the next three years, the agricultural sector will grow, according to forecasts, by approximately 2% annually.The average level of wages in 2023 will amount to 11,850 lei (+13.9% in nominal terms), in 2024 - 13,100 lei (+10.5%), in 2025 - 14.400 lei (+9.9%), in 2026 - 15,800 lei (+9.7%). In real terms, the increase of the average monthly wage in 2023 will be 0.4%, and in 2024-2026 - from 4.5% to 4.8%. The wage fund will increase from 88.7 billion lei in 2023 to 119.2 billion lei in 2026. MDED forecasts some depreciation of the national currency (MDL) against the U.S. dollar. The average annual exchange rate of the MDL against the USD will be 18.99 lei, 2024 - 19.16 MDL per dollar, in 2025 - 19.4 MDL per dollar, in 2026 - 19.62 MDL per dollar. At the end of 2023, the exchange rate of the MDL against the USD will be 19.18 MDL per dollar, at the end of 2024 - 19.26 MDL, at the end of 2025 - 19.5 MDL and at the end of 2026 - 19.69 MDL per dollar. In the current forecast, the agency projects a less pronounced depreciation of the national currency against the U.S. dollar. // 04.04.2023 - InfoMarket.
