The EBRD predicts a 1.3% decline in Moldovan GDP in 2023, and an increase of 3.5% in 2024.
Such data are given in the February review of the regional economy (Regional Economic Prospects) published by the bank. Experts from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development note that by the end of 2022, the decline in Moldova's GDP may be 4.7%. Data on the dynamics of the country's GDP in 2022 is not yet available. The National Bureau of Statistics will present the relevant data on March 15. According to the NBS, Moldova's GDP in January-September 2022 amounted to 197.8 billion lei, having decreased in real terms by 4.1% compared to the same period in 2021. EBRD experts note that the Eastern Europe and Caucasus region may face huge uncertainty in the short term due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. They highlight that in Moldova, lower real incomes and persistent power outages are likely to lead to a second year of production decline, albeit milder than in 2022. An improved global outlook in 2024 will have a positive impact on Moldova's economic recovery. Inflation across the region could also remain above targets, especially in Ukraine and Moldova, where the path to normalization is likely to be longer. The entire region remains extremely vulnerable not only to a protracted war in Ukraine, but also to tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. As InfoMarket agency reported earlier, the IMF predicts Moldova's GDP growth in 2023 by 1.5%, and in 2024 - by 4.3%. This is stated in the materials of the International Monetary Fund published after the completion by the IMF Executive Board of the second assessment of the implementation of the Moldova's financing program. It is predicted that inflation will be within the target range of the National Bank at the beginning of 2024 // 16.02.2023 – InfoMarket.
