The World Bank expects Moldova's GDP to decline by 0.4% in 2022, and economic growth by 2.7% and 4.2% in the next two years.
Such data are contained in the published new edition of the World Bank's report "Global Economic Prospects" for June 2022. It should be noted that the forecasts for Moldova's GDP for the current and next year, which are presented in it, repeat the latest, worsened forecast for the dynamics of the Moldovan economy, which was made by WB experts in the review of the economy of Europe and Central Asia “War in the Region” published in April. It should be noted that before the start of the war in Ukraine, the World Bank predicted that in 2022 Moldova's GDP growth would be 3.9%, and in 2023 - 4.4%. According to new forecasts, made taking into account the consequences of the war in Ukraine, WB experts expect the Moldovan economy to decline by 0.4% in 2022, and growth by 2.7% next year. Thus, the WB experts reduced the GDP growth forecast for Moldova for 2022 by 4.3 percentage points, and for 2023 - by 1.7 percentage points. Herewith, for 2024 they predict Moldova's GDP growth by 4.2%. World Bank analysts note that economic growth in Moldova is expected to be limited this year due to the war, despite the rapid recovery of the economy from COVID-19, and medium-term growth depends on containing the war and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as successful refugee crisis management and sustainable fiscal support. WB experts point out that the influx of Ukrainian refugees to Moldova at times exceeded 15% of the Moldovan population, and although most of them transited to the EU, the remaining refugees are likely to have high financial costs, squeezing resources for long-term development priorities. Earlier, WB analysts noted that the war in Ukraine poses serious threats to Moldova's economic prospects through trade (32% of imports and 14% came from Russia and Ukraine) and remittance channels (70% of migrants and 25-30% of remittances are connected with Russia and Ukraine). The main infrastructure networks are mainly linked to Ukraine, despite efforts to improve the country's connection to the EU. A potential disruption in the supply of food, energy and imports of goods is expected to further push prices up. As InfoMarket agency previously reported, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, Moldova's GDP in 2021, according to preliminary data, amounted to 241.9 billion lei and increased by 13.9% compared to 2020. Earlier, the Moldovan government and the IMF lowered the forecast GDP growth for 2022 from 4.5% to 0.3%, and the EBRD reduced the forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2022 from 2% to 1%. // 07.06.2022 — InfoMarket
