Against the backdrop of multiple external shocks, modest growth of the Moldovan economy is expected in 2022, - the National Institute for Economic Research.
The National Institute for Economic Research has presented another study, Moldovan Economic Trends, which reflects the main economic changes in the country in 2021 and provides forecasts for 2022. According to the National Institute for Economic Research Director Alexandru Stratan, against the background of numerous external shocks and a strong comparative base in 2021, slight economic growth is expected this year. If in 2021 GDP growth amounted to 13.9%, and it occurred against the backdrop of recovery from a significant decline in the previous year, provoked by the coronavirus pandemic, and unfavorable conditions for the agricultural sector, then in 2022 will not be achieved even the average annual growth of the economy during 2011-2021 (average 3.9%), since there are serious external risks, the main of which is the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia and its possible escalation. At the global level, inflation is rising and this trend will continue throughout the year: natural gas and food prices are expected to rise. According to the National Institute for Economic Research estimates, Moldova's GDP in 2022 will grow to 284.1 billion lei in nominal terms, or by 0.9% compared to 2021. In 2022, higher inflation is expected than last year: 19.3% versus 5.1%. The Moldovan leu will depreciate against the dollar by 3.3%: the average annual rate will be 18.5 lei per $1 (in 2021 - 17.9 lei per $1). A decline in foreign trade is expected: Moldovan exports, according to experts, will decrease by 0.9%, to $3.11 billion (in 2021, the growth was 27.5%), while imports will decrease by 0.4%, to $7.14 billion (last year the growth was 25.9%). In industry, a slowdown in production growth rates is expected by 2.1% compared to last year - up to 74.8 billion lei (in 2021 - an increase of 12.1%). In agriculture, after a record growth of 49.9% last year, a decline of 4.2% is expected - to 48.3 billion lei. This forecast is due to less favorable weather conditions, rising prices for plant protection products, energy resources, transport services, disruption of supply chains and logistics, and higher lending costs. A decline in investment activity is expected - investments in long-term tangible assets will decrease by 1.4% compared to last year (in 2021 - an increase of 4.8%). The monthly average salary in 2022 will be 10,040 lei - 10.1% more than last year in nominal terms and 7.7% less in real terms. In addition, experts predict an increase in the volume of foreign money transfers to Moldova - up to $1,644 million (+2.2%). // 19.04.2022- InfoMarket.
