Moldova's GDP in 2021 will grow by 9.2% and will amount to about 237.2 billion lei - National Institute for Economic Research.
This forecast was made by the experts of the National Institute for Economic Research in their new publication "Trends in the economy of Moldova". They noted that in Moldova, despite the uncertainty associated with the parliamentary elections held in July this year and the development of the Covid-19 pandemic, high economic growth was recorded in January-June. During this period, GDP grew by 11.7%, compared to the same period last year, exceeding the level of I-II quarters of 2019. The dynamics of the main economic indicators during this period led to a revision of estimates of GDP growth, compared with the forecasts made in the beginning of the year. According to the current forecast of experts from the National Institute of Economic Research, this year Moldova's GDP is expected to grow by 9.2%. According to analysts, the increase in GDP is due to the high dynamics of growth in gross value added in most sectors of economic activity - industry, especially in export-oriented industries (winemaking, production of electrical equipment, machinery and equipment, furniture, etc.), trade, transport, construction, information and communication, etc. In the first half of the year, the GVA in the agricultural sector decreased, at the same time, favorable climatic conditions and production volume in the second half of the year will ensure an impressive contribution of the industry to GDP growth this year. The rise in world prices for agri-food products this year, increased consumption and easier access to both local and foreign markets, the implementation of active policies to support local entrepreneurs in increasing productivity and resilience to adverse weather conditions are factors that will contribute to an increase in GVA in agriculture in 2022. Experts point out that the high volume of agricultural production will serve as another stimulus for the industry, which, in turn, is positively influenced by both internal and external factors - unblocking of raw material supply networks; the growth of the world economy and, directly, the favorable economic position of the main economic partners; increasing domestic consumption and stimulating monetary and fiscal policy. Investments have shown strong dynamics in the first half of the year and are expected to grow by 10.2% this year compared to 2020, after declining by 3.1% in the previous year. Analysts point out that net inflows of foreign direct investment are extremely small, therefore, access to finance, reducing political risks and the cost of doing business should remain important goals to support investment. An increase in investment activity, an increase in production, world prices and consumption will have a positive impact on the increase in the value of exports in 2021. At the same time, the accelerated growth of imports of goods this year, supported by domestic consumption and the intensification of re-exports will increase the trade deficit in the balance of goods, which may reach a new record level, and, accordingly, will put pressure on the current account. The increased demand for foreign currency led to a slight depreciation of the Moldovan leu against the US dollar in January-July this year compared to the same period in 2020, and, starting from August, the national currency has shown a clear trend towards strengthening. Thus, according to experts, serious fluctuations in the exchange rate are not expected in 2021. The National Institute for Economic Research experts predict that the average annual inflation in Moldova in 2021 will be 5%, the average exchange rate of the lei against the US dollar is 17.5 lei per $ 1. Exports will increase by 15% - to $ 2 billion 858 million, imports will increase by 25.9% - to $ 6 billion 817 million. Production of industrial products will grow by 13.6% - to 69.4 billion lei, agricultural products - will increase by 38.2% - up to 40.5 billion lei.// 19.10.2021 — InfoMarket
