The government is significantly increasing tax revenues, but this has not yet led to an improvement in the state budget. From January through July 2026, budget revenues rose by only 1.9%, while expenditures increased by 4.3%. As a result, the deficit reached 8.7 billion lei, an increase of 18.5% compared to the same period last year.
At first glance, this trend seems at odds with the results reported by the tax and customs authorities. Over the seven-month period, the State Tax Service generated 21.15 billion lei in state budget revenue—12% more than a year earlier. The Customs Service remitted 24.46 billion lei, increasing revenue by 8.2%. It turns out that revenues administered by the State Tax Service and the Customs Service are growing significantly faster than total state budget revenues. The reason lies in the structure of these revenues.
Total state budget revenues for the first seven months increased by only 844.9 million lei, or 1.9%, reaching 44.57 billion. At the same time, revenues administered by the tax service grew by approximately 2.26 billion lei, or 12%, while those from customs increased by another 1.86 billion lei, or 8.2%.
A significant portion of this increase, however, was offset by a decline in other revenues. The "other revenues" category contributed 1.88 billion lei to the budget—a decrease of 2.55 billion lei, or 57.5%, compared to a year ago. At the same time, VAT and excise tax refunds increased by 855 million lei, or 33.2%, to 3.43 billion lei.
Therefore, double-digit growth in revenues administered by the State Tax Service does not automatically translate into the same growth in total state budget revenues. The final result depends both on other sources of revenue and on the amounts the government refunds to taxpayers.
At the same time, expenditures continue to grow faster than revenues. From January through July, the government spent 53.27 billion lei—2.2 billion, or 4.3%, more than a year earlier. As a result, the state budget deficit increased from approximately 7.35 billion to 8.7 billion lei—an 18.5% rise.
At the level of the national public budget as a whole, the gap is even more pronounced. Its revenues for the seven-month period rose by 5.2%, to 75.72 billion lei, while expenditures increased by 7.7%, to 82.84 billion. As a result, the deficit reached 7.12 billion lei, compared to 4.94 billion a year earlier—an immediate increase of 44%.
The existence of a deficit itself is not unexpected: the 2026 state budget was originally approved with a deficit. The 2026 state budget was originally adopted with revenues of approximately 79.67 billion lei, expenditures of 100.57 billion, and a deficit of about 20.9 billion lei.
The deficit for the first seven months—8.7 billion lei—is so far significantly less than the 20.9 billion lei originally projected for the entire year of 2026. However, these figures cannot be directly compared: revenue and expenditure are unevenly distributed throughout the year. A comparison with the same period last year is much more revealing—and it shows that expenditures are growing faster than total revenue.
This is particularly important in light of the tax policy for 2027, which provides for new measures to increase budget revenues. Budget execution for the first seven months shows that the problem of public finances is not limited to how much additional tax revenue can be collected.
The State Tax Service is already delivering double-digit revenue growth, and customs revenues are also rising. However, total state budget revenues are growing significantly more slowly due to trends in other revenue streams and an increase in tax refunds.
At the same time, expenditures continue to grow faster than revenues. Therefore, the main risk to the budget lies not so much in the government's ability to collect more taxes, but rather in whether the growth of the revenue base can outpace the increase in its obligations. //02.09.2026 – InfoMarket.