As noted in the analytical note accompanying the ministry's updated medium-term forecast, it was revised against the backdrop of deteriorating external conditions, the conflict in the Middle East, rising energy prices, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. According to the Ministry of Economy's forecast, GDP growth will reach 1.8% in 2026—to 388 billion lei (19.4 billion euros)—2.8% in 2027, in 2028—3.2%, and in 2029—3.4%, reaching 497.4 billion lei (24.5 billion euros). In 2027–2029, Moldova's economy is expected to grow annually at a rate of 2.8–3.4% and enter a phase of economic recovery, capitalizing on the opportunities provided by its partnership with the EU and the implementation of structural reforms. Positive economic momentum for growth across all sectors is expected as a result of the implementation of the EU-supported Growth Plan. Its implementation is expected to stimulate public and private investment, increase productivity, accelerate reforms in key areas, and ultimately improve citizens' quality of life. The ministry's previous spring forecast projected GDP growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 3.6% over the following three years, 4%, and 4.2%, respectively, and by 2029, as previously projected, GDP would have exceeded 500 billion lei. Investment is expected to remain one of the main sources of economic growth over the next three years: gross fixed capital formation, after increasing by 16.9% in 2025, is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2026, and in 2027–2029, as tensions in the Middle East ease, investment growth rates could accelerate to 7.2–8.5% per year. Investment activity will be supported by infrastructure projects in the energy, transportation, and utilities sectors, as well as government programs and external financing. At the same time, private investment will remain dependent on lending conditions and the stability of the economic environment. Consumption in 2026 will increase by 1.6% following a 3.5% increase the previous year. Its growth will be held back by inflation, rising energy and import prices, a possible slowdown in real incomes, and more cautious consumer behavior. In the medium term, private consumption is projected to grow by approximately 2.9% per year, while government consumption is expected to grow by an average of 3%. Domestic demand will be supported by an increase in the minimum wage, labor compensation reform in the public sector, and pension indexation. According to the ministry's estimates, exports of goods and services will increase by 11.7% in 2026, driven by the recovery of agriculture and the manufacturing sector, as well as continued growth in exports of IT and BPO services. Imports will grow by 7.5% driven by demand for consumer goods, energy resources, and technological equipment. In 2027–2029, exports are expected to grow by 8–11% annually, while imports are projected to grow by 7–9%. In agriculture, growth of approximately 7% is projected for 2026, but it will slow to 2.5–3.2% per year in 2027–2029. After growing by 2.5% in 2025, the industrial sector may grow by 5% in 2026 and then accelerate to 5.7–6.9%. The main driver will be the manufacturing sector, including the production of electronics, chemical and pharmaceutical products, automotive components, construction materials, food products, textiles, and apparel. In the construction sector, following 6.6% growth in 2025, stagnation is possible this year due to inflationary pressures, tighter lending conditions, and the suspension of the "Prima Casă" Plus program. In 2027–2029, the sector may return to growth of 4.5–4.8% per year. Services will maintain a share of about 60% of GDP and grow by an average of 2.5% per year. Average annual inflation in 2026 is forecast at 7.3%, with an end-of-year rate of 8.2%. In 2027–2029, it is expected to gradually decline to 5–6%. The average annual exchange rate of the leu against the euro will rise from 19.59 lei in 2025 to 20.01 lei in 2026 and to 20.33 lei by 2029, while against the U.S. dollar, the leu will depreciate from 17.38 lei in 2025 to 17.54 lei in 2026 and to 18.06 lei by 2029. The number of employed people may increase from 779,000 in 2026 to 809,000 in 2029. According to the forecast, the average salary will rise to 17,000 lei in 2026 and reach approximately 22,700 lei by 2029. Nominal wage growth will range from 11% in 2026 to 9.7% in 2029, while real wage growth will fluctuate between 3.4% and 4.9% per year. It is worth noting that the European Commission expects Moldova's economy to grow by 2% in 2026, while the World Bank and the IMF project growth of 1.9%. However, the World Bank has lowered its previous forecast from 2.7%, and the IMF has lowered its forecast from 2.3%. Estimates for 2027 vary: the Ministry of Economic Development forecasts GDP growth of 2.8%, the European Commission at 3.5%, the World Bank at 3.8%, and the IMF at 2.2%. As a reminder, in 2025, Moldova's economy grew by 2.4%, in 2024 by 0.3%, in 2023 by 1.2%, and in 2021 there was a contraction of 13.9%. // 17.08.2026 — InfoMarket.