The IMF has lowered its forecast for Moldova’s GDP growth in 2026 by 0.4 percentage points—from 2.3% to 1.9%
This follows from the International Monetary Fund’s new April report, “World Economic Outlook” (WEO). The IMF experts have lowered their forecast for Moldova’s economic growth in 2027 by 0.3 percentage points as well —from 3.5% to 3.2%—and by the end of the next five-year period (2031), they expect our country’s GDP to grow by 3.5%, which is in line with their previous forecast. IMF analysts also forecast that average annual inflation in Moldova will be 6.4% in 2026, 5.5% in 2027, and 5% in 2031. At the same time, according to IMF experts, inflation in Moldova will stand at 7.1% by the end of 2026 and at 4.8% in 2027. The Fund’s experts estimate that Moldova’s current account deficit will amount to 21.9% of GDP in 2026, 20.4% in 2027, and 15.6% in 2031. The IMF’s April World Economic Outlook report notes that the global economy is once again facing challenges due to the war in the Middle East, which threatens to disrupt trends of economic growth and declining inflation. Global economic activity, which withstood the impact of rising trade barriers and growing uncertainty last year, is now facing a serious test due to the war that has broken out in the Middle East. Assuming that the conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global economic growth is projected to slow to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2017. According to the forecast, global inflation will rise slightly in 2026 and then resume its decline in 2027. The slowdown in economic growth and the rise in inflation are expected to be particularly pronounced in emerging and developing economies. Downside risks to the forecast prevail. A longer-lasting or more extensive conflict, increased geopolitical fragmentation, a reassessment of expectations regarding productivity growth linked to artificial intelligence, or a resurgence of trade tensions could significantly weaken economic growth and destabilize financial markets. Elevated levels of public debt and declining trust in public institutions exacerbate vulnerabilities. On the other hand, activity could pick up if productivity gains from AI materialize at a faster pace or if trade tensions decline steadily. Promoting adaptability, maintaining sound policy foundations, and strengthening international cooperation are essential for weathering the current shock and preparing for future disruptions amid an increasingly uncertain global environment. Increased defense spending in response to rising geopolitical tensions could boost economic activity in the short term, but also generate inflationary pressures, weaken fiscal and external sustainability, and create the risk of crowding out social spending, which in turn could lead to public discontent and social unrest. The outbreak of conflicts leads to serious macroeconomic trade-offs and long-term negative consequences that persist far longer than the immediate impact of wartime shocks. It should be noted that the World Bank previously lowered its forecast for Moldova’s GDP growth in 2026 by 0.8 percentage points—from 2.7% to 1.9%—but maintained its forecast for 2027 at 3.8%. Moldova’s GDP in 2025, compared to 2024, grew by 2.4% in real terms, reaching 353.5209 billion lei. The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization forecasts Moldova’s GDP growth at 2.2% in 2026, followed by a gradual acceleration in the medium term to 4.2% in 2029 // 15.04.2026 – InfoMarket.
