The Ministry of Economy worsened the economic growth forecast for Moldova for 2023, but kept the forecasts for the next 2 years unchanged.
According to the updated macroeconomic forecast, which was published by the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization, in 2023, Moldova’s GDP will increase by 2% compared to 2022 and amount to 312.4 billion lei. Previously, the department predicted economic growth in 2023 by 2.5%. In 2024, GDP growth is projected to be 3.5%, in 2025 – 4% (forecasts have not changed). In 2026, the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization predicts growth of 4.3% (previous forecast - 4.5%). In 2023, the average annual increase in inflation will be 13.6%, in the next 3 years - 5% annually. At the end of 2023, the inflation rate will be 6%, in 2024 - 5.5%, and in the next 2 years - 5%. In 2023, a decline in exports (by 5.4% - to $4.1 billion) and imports (by 3.2% - to $8.9 billion) is expected compared to 2022, while the negative trade balance will insignificantly decrease compared to last year (-1.4%). But in subsequent years, foreign trade will intensify: in 2024-2026 the volume of exports will increase by 9.8%, 8.9% and, accordingly, by 7.3%, and the volume of imports will increase by 8.7%, 7.2% and 5.5%. The forecast for the dynamics of the volume of investments in long-term tangible assets has not changed: this year the volume of investments will grow by 1.5%, and in the next 3 years - by 4.5%, 4.9% and, accordingly, 5.5%. At the same time, in absolute terms, the volume of investments will increase - from 40.3 billion to 53.2 billion lei in 2023-2026 (against previous values – from 33.2 billion lei to 43.6 billion lei for the same period). In the industrial sector, instead of the previously predicted growth of 4.5%, in 2023 there will be a decline of 2% and amount to 95.7 billion lei. In the next 3 years, annual industry growth will be 4.5-5%. In the agricultural sector, on the contrary, the forecast for 2023 has been improved - instead of growth of 15%, it is expected to be 25%. Over the next 3 years, the agricultural sector is expected to grow by 2-2.3% annually. The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization increased the forecast for the average monthly nominal salary in the country: instead of 11,850 lei, the average salary will be 12,450 lei (+19.2% in nominal terms), in 2024 - 13,700 lei (+10%), in 2025 – 15,000 lei (+9.5%), in 2026 – 16,250 lei (+8.3%). In real terms, the growth of the average monthly salary in 2023 and 2024 will be 4.9% annually, in 2025 and 2026 - 4.3% and, respectively, 3.2%. The wage fund will increase from 94.4 billion lei in 2023 to 123.7 billion lei in 2026. The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization predicts a less pronounced depreciation of the leu against the US dollar in 2023 than in the previous forecast and a more significant one in subsequent years. Thus, the average annual exchange rate of lei to the US dollar in 2023 will be 18.31 lei per dollar, 2024 - 18.93 lei, in 2025 - 19.32 lei, in 2026 - 19.66 lei per dollar. At the end of 2023, the leu exchange rate against the dollar will be 18.68 lei per dollar, at the end of 2024 - 19.31 lei, at the end of 2025 - 19.62 lei, at the end of 2026 - 19.93 lei per dollar. // 13.11.2023 — InfoMarket
