The EBRD has lowered its forecast for Moldova's 2022 GDP growth from 4% to 2%, while in 2023 it expects the Moldovan economy to grow by 3.5%.
Such data are contained in the new March Regional Economic Update published by the bank. Experts at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development say Moldova's fragile economy and limited institutional capacity mean it is struggling to cope with an influx of Ukrainian refugees, and it is likely to seriously disrupt the new government's reform program. The EBRD predicts a 10% decline in economic growth in Russia in 2022 because of the war in Ukraine. In 2023, the bank forecasts that the Russian economy will experience zero growth. The forecast was based on the assumption that a cease-fire will be reached in Ukraine in the coming months. The bank forecasts that the Ukrainian economy will fall by 20% this year. In case of a soon conclusion of the conflict and the beginning of active restoration of infrastructure already next year the growth of the Ukrainian economy, according to bank estimates, should reach 23%. It should be noted that in the November Regional Economic Update published by EBRD it was said that the EBRD raised its forecast for Moldova's 2021 GDP growth from 4.5% to 7%, but maintained the growth forecast for our country's economy in 2022 at 4%. The National Bureau of Statistics reports that Moldova's GDP in 2021, according to preliminary data, amounted to 241.9 billion lei and grew by 13.9%, compared to 2020. // 31.03.2022 - InfoMarket
