The IMF has improved its forecast for Moldova’s economic growth and foresees the 2021 GDP to grow by 4.5%, and not by 4.1%, as previously assumed.
This forecast contains the published April IMF World Economic Outlook, WEO. According to the experts of the Fund, after a 7% decline in 2020, Moldova's GDP will increase by 4.5% in 2021; in 2022 it will increase by 4%, and in 2023 - by 4.2%. At the same time, the inflation rate in Moldova in 2021 will be 3%, and in the next 2 years - 5% each. According to the forecasts of IMF experts, the current account deficit in Moldova will increase to 7% of GDP in 2021, and in 2022 the deficit will grow to 8.1% of GDP with a decrease in the indicator in 2023 to 7.1% of GDP. It should be noted that earlier the World Bank kept its forecast for Moldova’s GDP growth in 2021 and 2022 at the level of 3.8% and 3.7%, respectively, and in 2023, WB experts expect 3.8% growth. WB analysts also predict that 2021 inflation in Moldova will be 4.4%, and in the next 2 years - 5% each. As previously reported by the National Bureau of Statistics, Moldova's GDP in 2020 amounted to 206.35 billion lei and decreased by 7% compared to 2019. Moldova’s 2021 budget was adjusted taking into account the 4.7% economic growth projected for this year and the 2.7% inflation. Recently, macroeconomic forecasts were revised, and now the Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure expects that the real GDP growth of Moldova in 2021 will be 6%, in 2022 - 4.2%, and in the next 2 years - 4% each. It is expected that in nominal terms, the volume of GDP in 2021 will be 227.7 billion lei, in 2022 - 248.8 billion lei, in 2023 - 271.3 billion lei, in 2024 - 292.8 billion lei. According to the preliminary macroeconomic forecasts of the Ministry of Economy, the average annual inflation rate in 2021 will be 1.8%, and at the end of the year inflation will reach 3.3%. It is expected that the average annual inflation rate in 2022 will be 4.4%, and at the end of the year - 4.7%. In 2023-2024 the inflation rate will be 5% each. // 07.04.2021 - InfoMarket
