The EBRD has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2024 from 3.5% to 3.2%, and in 2025 - from 3.7% to 3.5%.
These data are provided in the new Regional Economic Prospects published by the bank in September. Thus, the experts of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development have reduced the forecast for the growth of Moldova's gross domestic product this year by 0.3 percentage points, and next year - by 0.2 percentage points. The EBRD experts note that against the backdrop of the start of negotiations on accession to the EU in June 2024, the recovery of the Moldovan economy continued at a moderate pace. GDP growth amounted to 2.2% in the first half of 2024, driven by agriculture, manufacturing and ICT services. A decrease in inflation and an increase in real wages contributed to the growth of private consumption, while investment increased due to an improved economic outlook. External financing remained stable, covering the balance of payments deficit and supporting the exchange rate. At the same time, the EBRD notes that energy security has been strengthened by new interconnectors that allow gas and electricity supplies from Romania. On the other hand, the EBRD notes that youth emigration to the EU continues, raising concerns about a shortage of highly skilled workers. The EBRD also states that the expiration of the gas transit agreement through Ukraine at the end of 2024 poses significant risks to energy supplies and economic growth, but notes that, on the other hand, progress in EU membership could improve the business environment and attract investment. It should be noted that in its previous Regional Economic Prospects in May, the EBRD maintained its GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2024 at 3.5%, saying that it expects the Moldovan economy to grow by 3.7% in 2025.//26.09.2024 – InfoMarket.
