In 2024, Moldova's GDP will grow by 3% year-on-year and the annual average inflation rate will be 4.8% - INCE
Such an updated forecast is contained in the latest analysis “Trends in Moldova's Economy”, presented by the National Institute for Economic Research (INCE). The economic growth will be lower than the previously forecasted 3.6% year-on-year increase, but it reflects a gradual recovery from the difficult periods of the last years. Thus, according to INCE economists' estimates, Moldova's GDP in 2024 will amount to 321.8 billion lei, which is 3% more than in 2023, when GDP amounted to 300.4 billion lei (+0.7% compared to 2022). The analysis notes a trend of inflation stabilization, with the average annual inflation forecast remaining at the previously forecasted level of 4.8% (13.4% in 2023). At the end of 2024, economists estimate that industrial production will grow by 5.4% (against a decline of 3.6% in the previous year), and agricultural production will grow by 2% (against 24.5% in 2023). At the end of the year, imports are expected to grow positively (+2.5%) to $8.89 bln, but exports are expected to decline (-2.2%) to $3.9 bln. Investments in long-term tangible assets will grow by 2.5% (vs. a 1% decline a year earlier) to 41.2 bln lei, reflecting investors' cautious approach. Remittances will total $1.6 bln in 2024, down 1.7% year-on-year. At the same time, wages are expected to grow by 7.8% in real terms and 13% in nominal terms, which will stimulate domestic consumption and partially restore purchasing power. Overall, INCE economists note that 2024 is a pivotal year for the economy in the context of major political events such as presidential elections and constitutional referendum. “Persistent external regional tensions remain a risk factor, but the IMF's forecast of a possible 4.6% decline in energy prices offers an optimistic outlook for economic competitiveness,” INCE said. // 23.10.2024 - InfoMarket.
