Moldova's GDP in 2020 will decrease by 6.3% compared to 2019, and in 2021 it is expected to grow by 5.5%, - GET Moldova.
Such forecasts were made by economists of The German Economic Team in their study on the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis on Moldova. Experts assessed the expected impact of the measures introduced by the Moldovan authorities as an answer to the spread of COVID-19: the closure of trading enterprises, catering, entertainment and services, limiting traffic, reducing investment, etc. It is assumed that April will be the month of the greatest total losses: 5,4 billion lei. In March they amounted to about 1.5 billion lei, in May they are estimated at 3.9 billion lei, in June - 3.1 billion lei, in July - 1.7 billion lei, and in the future the losses will amount to 1.2 billion lei per month. Experts clarify that this does not mean reducing Moldova’s GDP by the same amount, as consumer spending and investment usually include a significant share of imports, and a decrease in import demand will mitigate the negative impact on GDP. In total, internal factors to contain COVID-19 this year will lead to a reduction in demand by 20.8 billion lei. A negative impact of external factors is also expected: exports, imports and remittances will decrease due to the recession of the economies of the main partner countries of Moldova. So, in the EU in 2020, is expected a 5% decline, in Romania and Russia - by 4%, and the global economy as a whole is expected to fall by 3%. According to GET Moldova economists, in 2020 Moldova’s GDP will decrease by 6.3%. “In October 2019, the WB predicted a growth of the economy of Moldova by 3.8%, but in fact we expect a decline of 6.3%, with the most noticeable negative trends in the second quarter. Thus, the effect of the coronavirus crisis is estimated at 10.1% of GDP, ”experts say, emphasizing that the crisis will be more serious than the financial crisis of 2008-2009. GET Moldova economists believe that the decline in consumer and investor confidence will continue after the lifting of restrictions imposed by the authorities. As a result, domestic consumption in 2020 may dream of 10%, exports will decrease by 8%, imports by 17%, and investments will decrease by 16%. At the same time, GET economists predict that consumption, export, import and investment will recover in 2021, and Moldova's economy will grow by 5.5%.//04.05.2020 — InfoMarket.